The world is moving towards an ominous period. The spectre of conflict looms as polarity widens between the two dominant world superpowers.
The past five years has seen a number of concerning developments.
China has increased its assertiveness in its region, while making clear that it has an overarching objective of reunification with Taiwan. An increased presence of Chinese vessels has strained relations with its neighbours. Meanwhile, the United States has pivoted towards the Pacific and increasingly so following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, with its primary focus being curtailing China and rallying allies under the guise of common values. This is made abundantly clear from its decision not to participate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and instead divert its attention towards China.
The United States has been successful in building pacts with other countries, especially so since Biden came into office. Initially, this has been focused on countries that surround China and wield economic power, namely Australia, India and Japan. This has been seen by strengthening of military ties and trade cooperation. In the meantime, both China and the United States have been courting countries in the Pacific and to a lesser extent Europe. The United States has become increasingly open about how it views China as a threat and that it does not tolerate its political system to have any sway in the world. It has eroded public sentiment and goodwill towards China, with China being demonised for COVID-19 and the country isolating itself from the rest of the world.
Behind the scenes, it is imperative to keep in mind that the US's primary motivation is to ensure it remains the most powerful country in the world. The media has played a significant role in portraying China in a poor light highlighting arguments of democracy for Taiwan and human rights for the Uyghurs. However, none of these arguments can be further from the truth, given that the United States supports many countries with a poor human rights record. Although such efforts by the media may serve a purpose of inciting destablisation among Chinese citizens.
External factors too mean a confrontation becomes all the more inevitable. An impending recession would weaken public support for both the US and Chinese Presidents, with a cry against a common enemy being a unifying cause worth fighting for in the public's eyes. A restless US military with next to none personnel deployed abroad will look for an outlet given the US's imperious appetite for war. Last but not least, China and Japan are the largest foreign holders of US debt. Any conflict would significantly weaken China and the allies of the US including Japan, while relatively strengthening the US and result in the US not necessarily needing to repay its debt obligations.
The recent actions taken by both US and China has renewed fears of what it may mean for the world. The ghosts of World War II are long forgotten. As we enter a new cold war, the consequences this time around are dramatically multiplied by the build up of nuclear arsenal and long range high yielding missiles.
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Due to the risk of confrontation, I intend to take up a second passport at some point. I will look for the following factors in deciding where to take up a passport.
