Thursday, August 27, 2020

It Wasn't Meant To Be Like This (3)

The past year have been an absolute disaster.

I wasted one whole year of my life. I never want to go through this again.

I will reflect on my life at the hour of my death. If I had my time again would I have chosen to go through with this year? Would this year be something I can learnt from? What were the lessons?

Loss from gambling the markets

I lost over a million dollars. Waiting for the bear. Putting my faith that that the bear would arrive, but the bear is in hibernation.

I am consumed by the markets. Watching every movement in the markets.

All for what? Nothing. No reward. Only pain. After all this time, I finally admit I have a gambling problem. I keep losing and hurting and depositing more money. My mental state is destroyed.  I cut myself with 1000 daggers.

I gave up my corporate career. I am stuck at home. With the government lock down in place, I spend my days scrolling Twitter and reading about the financial markets.

I admit that there may be a potential silver lining. Initially I lost it all on momentum indicator short term option trading using %R/Di and then I lost in all on CFDs. Now, I learnt a lot about the markets and I have done my analysis and came up with a strategy. But too many times I still break my own risk management rules and end up gambling. I have to look up gambler's help. I have to stick with the plan I set. Come what may, come what may. I must learn patience. To be able to sit still and do nothing, especially since the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent

There are internal conflicts.

  • Mum's beliefs. I want to be close to my mum as she is aging. She would like be to settle down and find a wife, which I do at some point, although I don't have that inclination now. She wants me to join her religion but I am not interested.
  • Mum's age. I grieve that my mum is getting older and her posture is not good. I grieve for her health and how long she will live given a scare this year where I saved her life.
  • Finances. I grieve for my finances. For my losses. I regret putting it into short dated options initially and then CFDs where I was continuously margin called. I lack confidence as the market keeps ramping higher than what I expected.
  • No social life. I grieve for my life. Totally restricted and constrained. Lacking friends, a social life and travel, in large part due to lock down. It is bittersweet that everything in my city is shut. I am glad that others are not enjoying their life as it would be torture to see other people happy and myself in ruins, yet I would still like to be able socialise, eat out, and travel outside my local area.
  • Getting older. I grieve for my age. I am in the prime of my life but I am living at home. Not really living at all. Not the way I envisioned I will be living at my age.

During all this time, I still keep my physical health in good shape. I have a healthy diet, I exercise regularly. Exercise provides a temporary relief. 

  • I am grateful that I still own some property, I haven't given it all up. 
  • I am grateful the judicial system granted me a diversion so I avoided jail.
  • I am grateful that the winter is finally over and I can take it the rays of sunlight.

I know that I must take a break and regroup. No more charts or Twitter. Charts make my heart race and lead me to making emotional decisions. Most importantly I gain no joy from charts or Twitter.

I have been here before. I have figured a way out.

I know many people feel depressed and trapped. Mental health calls are up significantly. Businesses are going under. Someone I know had a year even more difficult than mine battling cancer. I am hurting inside too. I need to start taking small steps towards happiness each week and build up my self confidence to overcome my struggle.

I know I must enjoy life regardless of whether I am rich or poor. Even a broker motherfucker can still find a way to enjoy life. I only have one life. I must enjoy it. 

I know I must reflect on what my purpose is. Think about the metric by which my life will be judged. I don't have a clear purpose. No clear purpose means I can easily be distracted by short term perspective that offer immediate gratification and disobey my standards, and is currently leading to a life of hollow unhappiness. I need a purpose with a focus on family and others where people have self esteem and feel compelled to do the right thing.

Monday, August 24, 2020

Utter Destruction

The pain to be felt worldwide will be shocking in two to three years time.


The collapse of the everything bubble will destroy financial markets as the great de-leveraging begins. The pain will last for many years. All risk assets are in bubbles. People will not be able to afford basic necessities anymore. I am expecting there to be deflation first as money velocity collapses despite money supply then stagflation.


I predicted COVID-19 to be as huge as it was. This coming economic disaster will be worse and may lead to war.


What is happening in the financial markets is disgusting. The fear of missing out is insane. If SPX exceeds 3550, everything I track is wrong. My charts are wrong, breadth is wrong, sentiment is wrong, the people I follow are wrong. 


I have lost over $1 million shorting the market from SPX 3000 and have been crushed. However, I have seen this before. I witnessed the IPO bubble in 2007, the China bubble, the resources bubble, the property bubble, the Bitcoin bubble. They all end the same way. Only this time it will be far worse.