A Trading Plan

The Plan

Find a strategy from consistently profitable traders that has be backtested over 6 months that shows consistent returns

I feel down losing again and again, but I have to rely upon and ultimately trust a strategy that has been backtested over months

I can't trade... yet

I know you've been struggling with trading for a while. Accept that what has happened has already happened. Everything good takes time. Don't talk yourself down as you know that studying for your university degrees took five years. Be patient.

Know that you have achieved all your goals in the past. You are still on a journey that would likely lead to your goal if you keep going. All your goals came with many failures along the way. All your goals took time to achieve. For instance, think about all the failures in your pick up journey and applying for internships.

Think ahead to one year in the future. Think of it as a marathon. I want to survive hundred trades, instead of riding each trade like it is life or death.

You have had some successes (focus on the positive). You have learnt to take a mathematical approach, reduced blind gambling, removed expectations, become more accepting of your losses, and are more patient with yourself. You have fewer blow outs since you hired someone to trade for you (Mar 2023) and no blow outs when you gave them the password to control the trading (Apr 2024). You have 10x'ed three times before so you know it is possible (Jun 2022, Sep 2022, Mar 2024). You have successfully pairs traded for three years so you know some trading systems do work, even if they are not as profitable as you want them to be. You evaluated many brokers and calculated that options returns are lower than futures returns based on day trading.

Oftentimes I can get the direction right but still lose money. Two times in 2024 I took my own trades and got the direction right, but both times lost money. I bought OTM options along with CFD trades in April and mix of ITM and OTM along with CFD trades in August (a small loss with ITM and big loss with OTM). This is why I should not focus on trying to trade myself.

I know it is dumb to take a directional trade without a fixed timeframe. I could wait 5+ years. I could miss the target by 100 points. Short trades have a poor payoff (Sqqq only doubled in the Mar 2020 drop, no top 20 billionaire got there by shorting, no stock doubled during the GFC). I remember the feelings of anger, hopelessness, hitting myself when I lost. I remember depositing more if it goes against me.  I don't want to go through that again. My speculation is sometimes wrong (Spx in Oct 2019, Tlt in 2023)

I know there are people who do make consistent profits from trading (Sep 2024). It is possible to replicate them even if few make it. If things don't work out, I will find experts and learn from them. I also read these tips from successful traders: Have the ability to place orders quickly. Don't have big losses. Trade on momentum. Set percentage buffer for stop loss. Stay true to your way of trading. Trying to fight Wall Street is like trying to take a casino down by gambling. Trading is not about ideological campaigns. Trading requires self-control, discipline, research, dedication. Greed will be your undoing. The market is never wrong.

Yes, you have already tested 80 subscriptions and all of them didn't work and you wasted months and years trying to find one.

Be patient and don't get stressed about it. You put in effort into the testing. Keep persisting. It only takes 1 server to work to make it. Sometimes it's best to be nurtured away from the thing you are trying to achieve. Leave it alone and do something else, and it will come. Yes, there have been many failures but accept that this is part of the journey. Accept what happened.

Above all, dont risk what you can't afford to lose. Warren Buffet wisely said: "Never risk something you need for something you don't need."

Jason Wang is my motivation. He is living the life I want. Fit, wealthy, well travelled, eating nice food

Trading or business the only way to get there

I need to be prepared to lose - I lost many times before. Have funds set aside in case I lose

Towards the end of 2024, my trading is in limbo but I still believe.

I lost with traders I thoroughly backtested. I had expectations about trading services that didn't deliver

• I decided to cut those traders loose

I blew up my account from having access to my account. The biggest risk through my whole trading journey has been myself trading and making rash decisions without a strategy

• In April I fixed this issue after allowing my trader to change the brokerage password

I blew up my account taking my own trades in April amd August and sizing too big. I had a plan but it went against me.

• I accept these losses that already occurred. I am focused on the future returns of strategies and not seeking to recoup past losses

I can do backtesting but can't be all consuming. I felt like I was dying each day. I am pychologically hurt from trading. I was too focused on trading. This is compounded by limited social life and not living the way I want. At what cost is it all. It is taking away from me, not satisfying. and draining my happiness and energy. 

• I will focus on other areas of life. A nice meal ok but I have to have a vision for my future for the next year
• I separate myself from my trading. Trading results are out of my control

Tempering Travel

A decade ago I wrote about my love for travel, but lately travel has become exhausting.

These days I am not enjoying travel in many parts of the world. There are many places I go that I don't like.

The first week of travel is cool. After a month I miss my family. I think it is time for shorter 2-4 month trips. 1 month is too short because of the arduous journey where I waste two days travelling from and returning to Australia.

Travel is competitive. While I respect the guys who travel a lot, many are single and I have to remind myself that it is not my purpose and I easily get caught up in it. Many of the people in the travel community are single or divorced [1] [2]

In October 2023 I felt down. I haven't been able to make it in trading and I was focusing too much on travel. My money was gone just like it was after Ecuador/Peru in 2022. I followed many subscriptions that didn't work. I was derided by my overseas family for only travelling. I miss my mum and my sister travelling for so long. I prefer shorter stints now. It is just collect a bunch of dots on the map. There was no enjoyment except briefly in some cities where my cousins live. I am not even getting girls.

I didn't enjoy the trip. Or being away for so long. It was exhausting and no fun. I thought the trip would be cheap and cheerful but it was not to be. I have relatives and friends making one million dollars an year. I am living at home in a basic house, with no nice furnishing, no car, and can't even afford a good top.

At the end of my September 2024 trip I felt really exhausted. I went through tough conditions in the third world. I am not going for my goals. I am not attracted to the girls in the places I am in. I don't enjoy the places I visit. What is the point of going to so many places I don't enjoy? One or two is ok, but so many?

I have other places I enjoy but I didn't go to them. I have other things I like doing but I don't do them. Instead I put myself through a lot of moments I don't like. A lot of uncomfortable buses, trains, and cities with no attractive girls or amazing sites. 

Travel goes against my dream of having a girl and family. There is no happiness going to places I don't enjoy. Travel to purely tick off cities 'darting around' doesn't bring me joy. I didn't have any joy from travel in 2023 or 2024. I darted around Europe - no girls. I darted around central Asia - no girls. I am not staying anywhere long enough. I am repeating the same mistakes. 

I feel disappointed in myself for travelling and ticking off one more city but not achieving my long term goals.

Takeaways

- Shorter travel stints of 3 months

- Few stops in places I don't enjoy

- Balance my travel - go to places I enjoy and things I like doing like dating girls. 

- Stay somewhere I enjoy for 2+ weeks then dart around 1 week

- Focus more on trading. No more subscription services - tested two more services in 2024 and both failed

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It was never my intention to visit all the countries in the world.

In 2012 when I was in El Salvador my friend asked me about visiting all the countries in the world but I never thought I would.

In 2017 when I was in the Golan Heights I spent a long time marvelling at Syria, thinking that I would never actually step foot in it.

In 2019 I spent four months in Europe and could have easily visited over 20 countries but I chose to stay in four countries for weeks at a time. In fact, I stayed in Minsk for three weeks and didn't even venture out to the rest of Belarus. I do regret this a little but I had other goals at the time. I also chose to spend two months at the end of 2019 staying in countries I visited before.

In 2022, I spent 10 months in Latin America and I could easily have completed all the countries in South America but I chose not to.

There were many times I could have ticked off a country but I chose not to. I was on the Bolivian border in Peru and could have taken a boat across to Bolivia but I chose to save it for another trip. While in Seoul I considered taking a trip to the DMZ to tick off North Korea but I didn't take it. Likewise while I was in Zurich I considered taking a trip to Liechtenstein but I didn't take it.

Having said that, I went out of my way to visit San Marino, deliberately chose to visit Belize from Mexico, and drove to Lesotho from Johannesburg so I do enjoy ticking off a country in some circumstances.

As 40 approaches and after passing 100 countries I thought it would be a cool goal to complete all the countries in the world before I hit 40. But after some more thinking, I decided against putting a timeframe on it as it stresses me out and is not enjoyable for me anymore. My initial goal was driven by watching other travellers, which fuels inspiration but it also gives rise to competition and envy. It also takes away from my more important goals as was the case when I previously travelled hard.

I have my whole life to finish all the countries. But I have limited time to fuck around. I want to have a long term partner that leads to marriage soon. Basically I have one last chance before I settle down. I wanted to meet girls in Central Asia but it is too conservative.

I wrote about my desire to marry, however I want to spend one more year being single and hooking up with girls. I will spend some time gaming next year instead of visiting every country. I will search for girls in advance. I don't like wasting all my time doing street game.

The whole point of life is to be happy and do what I enjoy.

--

Some travel statistics:

I retired in Jan 2015 (40 countries approx). From Jan 2015 to Dec 2024 (120 countries approx) - 10 years retired, approx 66 months away. 19 months Aus (7 Perth/WA, 4 Brisbane, 4 Darwin, 4 Adelaide) - 5 cities in Australia for 3+ months each. 47 months overseas. Prior to Jan 2015 - 10 months away

Settling Down

Early this year I started considering a long term partner and eventually marriage more seriously.

In recent years I have been chasing girls for short term flings and sex. However, I always had the idea of marriage in the back of my mind.

It started with an argument I had with my sister. I was there for my sister every single day visiting her while she was in hospital, bringing her food, and researching cures. Without my help she may not have lived or she would have lived her life in a vegetative state. However, not once did she prepare anything for myself and my mum when we had covid. Not once did she help me look for answers when I was battling my depression and crying myself to sleep every night. Not once did she hug me when I was lying on the floor shouting and crying because the demons were attacking me.

This prompted me to tell her what it meant to be a decent human and what it meant to go above and beyond, to love someone.

Through the tears I discovered what I truly value. Love. Real connection with those close to me, i.e. family. And it made me discover that I want to marry someone who truly loves me and will be there with me through thick and thin. Because if we don't have each other what do we have.

In late 2024 this idea was reinforced when my mum left on a trip. I felt lonely. I really missed  her connection. I miss someone to be with. I want someone who can be here with me through good and bad times. To me this is way more important than money.

All this time I have been chasing temporary highs. I chased money, girls, travel, watching sports. Others chase it through alcohol, drugs, tv, food, status. All these provide temporary satisfaction then we want the next hit.

I want someone to hug when I am down. Someone who tells me everything is going to be ok. Someone who loves me. Someone to make love to every now and then.

It is signficantly harder to attract young girls as I get older. The effort required to search for girls will only increase as I age. I am also less interested in chasing girls as I was when I was younger due to my lower sex drive, even though there is still an interest. I also achieved most of what I wanted. Now the desire for love and connection is much stronger than when I was younger. I am getting older. I have lived half my life and I want to spend half my life with someone I love.

Married men are healthier than men who were never married or whose marriages ended in divorce or widowhood. Men who have marital partners also live longer than men without spouses; men who marry after age 25 get more protection than those who tie the knot at a younger age, and the longer a man stays married, the greater his survival advantage over his unmarried peers [1]. Married and cohabiting males live 8 years longer than single males at age 50 [2 - Fig 2b, Table 2]. 50 year old men who are married will live about four years longer than never-married men [3]. Married men live 4 years more than never married men at age 65 [4]. 

I would prefer a partner who is younger than me. The mortality risk of a husband who is seven to nine years older than his wife is reduced by eleven percent compared to couples where both partners are the same age. Conversely, a man dies earlier when he is younger than his spouse [5]. However, bereavement is associated with a higher death rate. Healthy men who lost a wife were 2.1 times more likely to die than healthy men who were not bereaved. The risk was greatest from seven to 12 months after the loss, but an elevated death rate persisted for more than two years [6].  In the year after losing a spouse, men are 70% more likely to die than similarly aged men who did not lose a spouse [7] . Age gap couples are more likely to report greater trust and commitment [8].

Getting a new girl is temporary happiness. I remember the pain through 2020 after sleeping with 30 girls the year prior. I was always chasing the next lay like a drug addict chases their next hit. I rather create shared experiences and family together.

An elderly female acquaintance told me: Who is going to take care of you if you are old and have no money? When you are young you have suitors chasing you, but that won't be the case when you are old.

I am sick of dating apps

I am sick of limited sex, due to travelling and then searching for girls again in a new location

I don't enjoy street/day game or night game. I am not interested to go out just to chat to girls.

Some qualities I am after in a girl: Loyal. Good heart. Loves family. Wants children. Open to moving overseas. Respects Asian culture. Loves me and cares for me through good and bad times. Accepts that I am unconventional. Not easily offended. Frugal and likes looking out for bargains. Playful. I am interviewer qualifying her. I know I am able to get a 20yo overseas

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November 2024 update:

I need to think long term, not just thinking about the next trip I take. 

I get caught up in the addiction of visiting the next place but don't put the effort into finding my life partner. I understand I have not been seriously thinking about having a long term partner until year, however I must put in the effort to make it happen now.

I know I am getting older. Travelling to a new country does not even compare to how important this is to me.

Just like in 2018 I travelled too much. I visited over 100 cities. I don't feel happy travelling. Only for a few days in New Zealand did I actually enjoy my travels.

What Do I Want In My Life?

As I approach 40, I ask myself, what do I want in my life?

Is this the way I want to live my only life? The most productive years of my life.

Thinking about money [Don't have a job that is solely focused on money or spend all my time thinking about money]

Chasing sex [Aim to get married long term]

Reading news [Limit reading news to once a day]

Never at ease [Do an activity to relax and take it easy once a week]

Limited social life [Connect with old friends and meet new friends]

No

Where do I want to be?

Do I want to be in the cold? [Don't live in Australia during the winter]

With little social life/dates? [Aim to get married long term]

Always concerned about a tight budget [Boost savings for a while with a job for 4 months if trading doesn't work out]

No

Do I want to be travelling to places that I don't enjoy? [Don't just try to tick off every region when I don't enjoy it]

Getting envious watching other travellers? [Don't follow other travellers so much as it is not my purpose]

Always checking dating apps trying for another lay? [Aim to get married long term]

No

I need to learn to be really grateful for what I do have, and try to live each day like it might be my last.

In December 2023 I set myself some goals

- Cruises to Greenland/Antarctica

- Buy a house for my mum with less cleaning involved (updated from having a cleaner at home)

- Pay off my mortgages

- Make it in trading

These goals require money. If I achieve my goal of making it in trading then I would be able to achieve the other goals. I would also be able to return to around 10m networth that I would have had if I didn't lose it all and kept developing property.

However, at the same time I don't want to be consumed by money. It is so easy for people to think only about money and lose sight of life.

- Find myself a girl to love

I wrote that my long term goal is to have a girl to love in Settling Down.