Wishful Thinking

Seeing startup success stories inspires and stirs envy.

I hear about these youngsters hitting the big time. Whatsapp selling for $19 billion. Airbnb, Uber and Campaign Monitor raising in excess of $200 million. Plenty of companies have now achieved $1 billion in valuation [1] [2], while many many more have valuations exceeding $20 million.

What these stories don't show is the exceedingly high rate of failure of startups. Only a few ever reach the pinnacle. My guess is around 1% of startups succeed (achieving a $20 million plus valuation) [3] [4].

Entrepreneurship is harder than a day job. It takes an emotional and physical toll. Entrepreneurs work 50% more hours than the average worker, with half working 50-60 hours a week [5] [6]. Working for yourself is likely to be more stressful and less secure than receiving a regular paycheck. Furthermore, around 50% of entrepreneurs report having a mental condition [7]. Tim Ferriss commented that only a minority of VC backed businesses are happy, founders tend to have a view that life will suck for the next 5 to 10 years and then they will exit, and few businesses actually survive.

What's more is that dilution and taxes take a big hit out of your end value, meaning that it is likely you are left with around 7% of the sale price [8] [9] [10] , which will take say 5 years to build towards. In this case, to achieve a $1 million exit post taxes, you will need to sell your startup for at least $15 million. In a post examining the poor returns of investing in startups, 'Drowning American' commented that his friends have successful exits of around $120 million and own roughly a 10% share, which is equivalent to under 7% of the sale price after tax [11].

Even if a startup achieves a good sale result, entrepreneurs often experience dislocation and disorientation following the sale, including feelings of loss and sadness as their companies gave them a sense of identity, purpose and structure. They also have difficulty finding wealth advisors and find that it takes time to discover the next fulfilling chapter of their lives.

The odds are heavily tilted against you. You better have luck on your side.

On a related note, I must never forget how tough it is for the majority of hedge funds. After working in a hedge fund and interviewing many hedge fund managers, I know that most hedge funds have low assets under management and just match market returns. In fact, around 90% of hedge funds have less than $100 million assets under management [12]. We only hear stories of the funds that make it big, while the reality is that the majority don't make bucket loads of money.

Environmental Degradation

The destruction of the natural environment is happening at an astonishing rate.

The population of lions, sharks and rhinoceros are down by around 80 per cent in the last 50 years. Many animals and plants are on the brink of extinction.

Earth has lost half of its wildlife in the past 40 years. The WWF reports that animal species have been decimated as humans kill them for food in unsustainable numbers, while polluting or destroying their habitats, with the most severe decline among populations of freshwater species.

The increasing human population further encroaches on the natural habitats of many animal species. This leads to more demand for water, food, and energy, and more production and waste. Our consumption of natural resources has risen dramatically. While population has risen fourfold in the last century, water use has gone up sevenfold.

Moreover, it does not help that the human species is generally self centred, particularly amongst adults. People and businesses have predominantly neglected the environment in the pursuit of profits and personal interests.

The activities of the human population are placing an enormous strain on the natural environment. We see this in many ways. The reliance on dangerous energy sources polluting the environment and leading to the potential for adverse consequences. The use of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilisers poisoning animal and human health. The poaching, hunting and over-consumption of animals leading to near extinction of many animal species. The amount of waste produced ending up in landfill sites and oceans. The clearing of natural habitats for agriculture, forestry, mining and urban development reducing habitable land.

There are no easy solutions. Overall, it comes down to restricting the growth in the human population (through reducing child mortaility, improving education and contraception) and being more resource efficient.

Relationship Conundrum

As more of my friends get married and upon continual insistence from my family, I feel peer pressure to find a suitable girl and get married.

I wanted to get married some day. In part, it was because it was the thing to do. In my mind, I always expected that I would settle down.

Lately, I have been thinking about it more and weighing up where I want to take my personal relationships. Currently I want to make the most of my single life and have fun with girls. I have no inclination to settle down. Although, I believe this will change as I grow older.

There are benefits with being single. I enjoy the thrill of the chase and connecting with new girls, particularly when the feelings are shared. I can travel when and where I want. It is less likely that the girl will have the time and money to be able to travel extensively with me if I settle down. I can meet young girls that I, and most men are more attracted to, whereas I am afraid that I will not be sexually attracted to a girl when she grows old.

I need to listen to my true self. The last thing I want is to settle down too soon and suffer a mid-life crisis due to divorce or regret. I will miss it when it's gone and all the money in the world won't buy me the year I was 25, 30 or 35.

On the flip side, there are girls I like but there are few and far between. I am picky. I am only attracted to a few girls. I spend a lot of my time looking and half the girls I am interested in have boyfriends. It is better to settle down if I am not achieving what I want with my single life. I also desire a deeper connection and feel a longing for more if I am interested in a girl.

I know marriage is a big decision. I have to choose wisely and look for traits such as love and faithfulness in addition to playfulness and adventurousness. Studies have shown that women who have more non-marital sexual partners are more likely to divorce and more likely to be unhappy in marriage. Factors that reduce the risk of divorce include: age of marriage being over 25, age of first sexual experience being over 18, birth of first child after 8 months of marriage, Asian ethnicity (as opposed to black), a bachelor's degree or higher education [1], deciding to live together with a view to marriage (as opposed to sliding into co-habitation), and a formal wedding ceremony. I also have to note that for a lot of couples, the amount of sex declines after the second child. Divorce rates are also on the rise [1a]. It is better to marry a woman from a country where the divorce rate is not high (ranked by percentage) [1b, 1c]. It is better to choose the profession of a woman wisely too [1d]. It is better to marry a woman from a country that ages well.

The most stable romantic relationships and marriages are those in which one party is dominant. It is important to me that I find a girl who is subordinate to me and likes me more than I like her. She will be there for me through thick and thin and provide the compassion, understanding and unconditional love that a spouse should have for the other no matter what.

Happy relationships are characterised by the quality of their friendship with each other. Happy couples share 5 positive experiences for every negative one. Positive interactions include giving compliments, showing appreciation, reliving a memory and doing something nice for each other.  Happy couples talk more. They make time for intimacy and have sex a few times a week. They share new experiences together. They respond to triumphs with enthusiasm, questions and congratulations. They respond to arguments with humour, affection, and concession on certain points [2].

Around 40% of marriages end in divorce. Almost half of marriages have had divorce initiated. 70% of divorces are initiated by women. Divorce is equivalent to a $9,000 loss for women compared with a $110,000 loss for men (in 2009 dollar amounts). In comparison, marriage provides a $16,000 benefit for women compared with a $32,000 benefit for men. Divorce is worse than remaining single because it is financially destructive and psychologically damaging. Many divorces occur because of unreasonable expectations, with contempt and criticism being the biggest predictors of divorce [3].

I will have to get a pre-nuptial agreement covering children when I marry. My parents divorced and I have experienced girls breaking my heart on more than one occasion. A lot of girls are self-interested and treat me with no respect. There are many bad people in this world and it is not easy to know what someone is like beneath the surface. I read about a woman who was unfaithful and divorced her husband as he was not making her feel 'special' after 20 years of marriage despite him being a good husband and father, having a good job, undertaking most of the domestic duties, and helping with the children. I can lose half or more of the wealth I accumulated in the event of a divorce. I need to check with a lawyer in obtaining a binding financial agreement and consent orders stamped by the court, documenting that both parties received independent legal advice before signing the agreement to reduce the risk of a challenge.

I know that I want a girl to grow old with, even as a companion. I don't want to be alone when I am old. Some single people get swindled, and it is easier to get swindled when one is older and not as savvy. In the long term, it is good to have someone there to share experiences with. Relationships magnify experiences. Studies show that marriage is good for the children, health, and happiness. I also want to be a father at some stage.

A UK survey found that on a scale of 0 to 10, married people were on average 0.14 points happier than co-habiting couples, 0.3 points happier than single people and 0.4 points happier than those who were divorced or separated. In the US, the well-being of married people was also higher than single, divorced and separated people.

I realise it is up to me. I decide what I want to do. I know that right now I have no desire to settle down. I want to make the most of being single. I want to live out my dreams and not live in regret from settling down too soon.

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A side note on platonic relationships.

I understand the value of good friendships and the happiness and sense of connection they bring. Good friendships take time to build and requires active engagement to nurture. It is easier to build such relationships through a centralised community such as school, university, a work program, or an interest group.

Often priorities and interests change and good friends may drift apart and meet less frequently. This is more likely to occur when a friend settles down, has children or moves overseas. Research shows that falling in love comes at the cost of losing two close friends.

Friendships have been the biggest contributor to my happiness. However, I am in less contact with my close friends. I can choose to actively seek out new friends and/or rekindle old friendships, although the latter is not easy to do as my friends are in long term relationships and are busier with work and family. I can also choose to focus on other drivers of happiness.

As for the majority of friends and acquaintances, they come and go all the time. I don't even remember some of the friends I had in the past.

Most people just worry about their day to day. I don't know people who reflect on their past moments. Old friends don't contact me anymore.

Most men lose friends and become increasingly lonely after they turn 30 as work, family and other commitments eat up their time. 25% of men have few or no social connections, and loneliness and isolation is common in men between the ages of 30 and 65 [4]. Our social networks shrink from age 25, with the pool of friends a person has getting smaller and smaller as the years go by. Loneliness is also an epidemic among young adults and a problem for older people [5]. The effects are huge. Social isolation is as potent a cause of early death as smoking 15 cigarettes a day. Loneliness is twice as deadly as obesity. It is imperative to get relationships right, for the sake of health as well as living a happy life.

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On family and children.

Parents usually think that their child will be better than average. This is unrealistic. Even if they end up above average in the system, it will likely be in a white collar position that they dislike. It is more likely that your child will end up committing suicide or being locked up in jail or having a mishap than becoming a superstar, although being a superstar is not the goal of having children.

Families may break up. There are many instances of children not seeing their parents, parents not seeing their children, and separated couples never seeing each other again.

Fast Is Not Always Best

I have always wanted to be the fastest in everything.

I used to want to be the fastest in arithmetic, fastest to walk from the tram stop to school, fastest to cook a good meal, fastest in finishing woodwork, fastest in writing, fastest in achieving wealth.

However, it's not all good. To be the fastest, I often cut corners. My results lacked quality. I took risks. Sometimes the risks were not calculated. I noticed this today as I was driving. I was impatient and I wanted to reach the destination in the fastest time. Only when I arrived home did I realise my mistake. I was driving recklessly. It was dangerous and I put my life and that of my family at risk.

I have lost large amounts of money due to my desire for speed. The risks I took didn't pay off and I lost what I had. I realise now that when I have the wealth to retire, I need to remember to play it safe and not take risks that could mean I lose it.

I see the foolishness of my actions. There is no need to always be in a rush. When striving to be the fastest one has to fully appreciate the risks involved.

Only Young Once

Physical performance starts to fade when you hit 30.

Age begins to show. Health starts to deteriorate.

You don't realise how quickly your youth is over.

You want to make a memory. You want to savour every moment.

You only have one chance to do what you want to do when you are young.

If you don't give it a go, eventually, it will be too late.

All the money in the world will never get back time that passed you by.

No-one knows how old you will live and fit and healthy you will be as you age. Do it while you are still able.

Give up the myth of looking young forever or hankering for your younger years. You will be perpetually disappointed as you will never achieve perfection and will eventually age.

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Update Jan 2024

The best athletes in the world are under 30. Around 7% of the top athletes are over 30. Few are great after their mid 30s.

3 of the top 20 male and 2 of the top 20 female tennis players are over 30. This makes it 5 of the top 40 or 13%.

3 of 41 of the €50m+ market value players of of the top 5 football teams in the world according to Football Database are over 30 or 7% (or 1 of 50 based on market value alone or 2%)

1 of the most recent 10 world record breakers in athletics were over 30 or 10%.

0 of the most recent 10 world record breakers in swimming were over 30 or 0%.

The average age of Olympians is 25 [1].

In terms of dating for men, less than 5% of females under 25 want to date a male aged 40 [2]

Only 2% of women in Anglo countries marry men more than 15+ years older than them [3]

Those in their early 20s have an average age difference in their relationships of about two to three years [4]

20-22 year old women are most interested in men aged 23-25 [11]

Male desirability is at a peak at age 27 when 70% of women are attracted to them, dropping to 20% at age 40 [11]

Desirability for men starts declining from age 30 onwards and more than halves by age 40 [2]

Young people seem even more judgemental of age-gap relationships than their older counterparts, particularly when a man is older than a female partner [5]

Many women change their opinions of their early relationships as they grow up, to conform with societal disapproval of age-gap relationships [6]

Men are increasingly dependent on dating apps while dating is becoming increasingly difficult for men. Sexlessness has been rising and marriages declining worldwide [7] [8] [9]

Females in large cities in Western countries are increasingly intolerant and unaccepting [10]

We Are All Human

(I)

Each one of us is the same. We are human.

Able and disabled. Rich and poor. Beautiful and ugly. Young and old. Loved and despised. We are human.

We must treat each other as equals. There is no-one better or worse than the other. We are all human.

(II)

All humans have feelings.

Real connection is the desire of the human species.

Connection comes from identifying with the other.

(III)

No-one is special.

Humans are normally distributed. Ability, talent, thinking, emotion, lifespan.

There are a few outliers*, but these are not significantly different. We are all part of the same distribution.

* - Some humans are over three standard deviations away from the mean and some have super human abilities, such as remote viewing, psychokinesis, body temperature controllers, savants, and energy healing.

A Successful Life

The Grant Study shows that the happy, successful, and physically well men in their 80s have these attributes in their lives:

• Calm and composed with the opposite sex, not anxious
• Confident about sex, not afraid of it
• Thought that sexually, people are not animals
• Put other people's needs first
• Remembered the existence of others, not wrapped up in their own interests
• Open in all situations, not putting up a wall when the situation requires it
• Kept people close, not at a distance
• Did not have feelings they thought might become destructive

Men who were the opposite had a discomfort about the emotional aspects of life, and a resulting self-doubt, pessimism, and fearfulness. The more at ease men were with their feelings, the more successful they were for the rest of their lives.

The study showed that there is a single yes/no question that could predict whether someone would be alive and happy at age 80: “Is there someone in your life whom you would feel comfortable phoning at four in the morning to tell your troubles to?". The capacity to love and be loved was the single strength most clearly associated with subjective well-being at age 80. The capacity for empathetic relationships predicts economic, health and relationship success.

The clearest message is that good relationships keep us happier and healthier. Social connections are good for us and loneliness kills. People who are more socially connected are happier, physically healthier and living longer. People who are more isolated are less happy, their health declines earlier, their brain function declines earlier, and they live shorter lives. It's the quality of your close relationships that counts. High conflict marriages are bad your health, while warm relationships are protective. The people who were the most satisfied in their relationships in their 50s were the healthiest at age 80. The people who were happiest in retirement were the ones who actively worked to replace workmates with new playmates. It is not about fame, wealth, and high achievement. It is about relationships with family, friends, and community. Some practical steps include replacing screen time with people time, doing something new in a stale relationship, reaching out to a family member you haven't spoke to in a while.

The only thing that really matters in life are your relationships to other people.