It Wasn't Meant To Be Like This (3)

The past year have been an absolute disaster.

I wasted one whole year of my life. I never want to go through this again.

I will reflect on my life at the hour of my death. If I had my time again would I have chosen to go through with this year? Would this year be something I can learnt from? What were the lessons?

Loss from gambling the markets

I lost over a million dollars. Waiting for the bear. Putting my faith that that the bear would arrive, but the bear is in hibernation.

I am consumed by the markets. Watching every movement in the markets.

All for what? Nothing. No reward. Only pain. After all this time, I finally admit I have a gambling problem. I keep losing and hurting and depositing more money. My mental state is destroyed.  I cut myself with 1000 daggers.

I gave up my corporate career. I am stuck at home. With the government lock down in place, I spend my days scrolling Twitter and reading about the financial markets.

I admit that there may be a potential silver lining. Initially I lost it all on momentum indicator short term option trading using %R/Di and then I lost in all on CFDs. Now, I learnt a lot about the markets and I have done my analysis and came up with a strategy. But too many times I still break my own risk management rules and end up gambling. I have to look up gambler's help. I have to stick with the plan I set. Come what may, come what may. I must learn patience. To be able to sit still and do nothing, especially since the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent

There are internal conflicts.

• Mum's beliefs. I want to be close to my mum as she is aging. She would like be to settle down and find a wife, which I do at some point, although I don't have that inclination now. She wants me to join her religion but I am not interested.
• Mum's age. I grieve that my mum is getting older and her posture is not good. I grieve for her health and how long she will live given a scare this year where I saved her life.
• Finances. I grieve for my finances. For my losses. I regret putting it into short dated options initially and then CFDs where I was continuously margin called. I lack confidence as the market keeps ramping higher than what I expected.
• No social life. I grieve for my life. Totally restricted and constrained. Lacking friends, a social life and travel, in large part due to lock down. It is bittersweet that everything in my city is shut. I am glad that others are not enjoying their life as it would be torture to see other people happy and myself in ruins, yet I would still like to be able socialise, eat out, and travel outside my local area.
• Getting older. I grieve for my age. I am in the prime of my life but I am living at home. Not really living at all. Not the way I envisioned I will be living at my age.

During all this time, I still keep my physical health in good shape. I have a healthy diet, I exercise regularly. Exercise provides a temporary relief. 

• I am grateful that I still own some property, I haven't given it all up. 
• I am grateful the judicial system granted me a diversion so I avoided jail.
• I am grateful that the winter is finally over and I can take it the rays of sunlight.

I know that I must take a break and regroup. No more charts or Twitter. Charts make my heart race and lead me to making emotional decisions. Most importantly I gain no joy from charts or Twitter.

I have been here before. I have figured a way out.

I know many people feel depressed and trapped. Mental health calls are up significantly. Businesses are going under. Someone I know had a year even more difficult than mine battling cancer. I am hurting inside too. I need to start taking small steps towards happiness each week and build up my self confidence to overcome my struggle.

I know I must enjoy life regardless of whether I am rich or poor. Even a broker motherfucker can still find a way to enjoy life. I only have one life. I must enjoy it. 

I know I must reflect on what my purpose is. Think about the metric by which my life will be judged. I don't have a clear purpose. No clear purpose means I can easily be distracted by short term perspective that offer immediate gratification and disobey my standards, and is currently leading to a life of hollow unhappiness. I need a purpose with a focus on family and others where people have self esteem and feel compelled to do the right thing.

Utter Destruction

The pain to be felt worldwide will be shocking in two to three years time.

The collapse of the everything bubble will destroy financial markets as the great de-leveraging begins. The pain will last for many years. All risk assets are in bubbles. People will not be able to afford basic necessities anymore. I am expecting there to be deflation first as money velocity collapses despite money supply then stagflation.

I predicted COVID-19 to be as huge as it was. This coming economic disaster will be worse and may lead to war.

What is happening in the financial markets is disgusting. The fear of missing out is insane. If SPX exceeds 3550, everything I track is wrong. My charts are wrong, breadth is wrong, sentiment is wrong, the people I follow are wrong. 

I have lost over $1 million shorting the market from SPX 3000 and have been crushed. However, I have seen this before. I witnessed the IPO bubble in 2007, the China bubble, the resources bubble, the property bubble, the Bitcoin bubble. They all end the same way. Only this time it will be far worse.

Time's Ticking

Update 2024: I realise this post was garbage. After writing it, I experienced my worst year. 2020 was the worst year. There was nothing actionable from this post.

--

I verbalised that reason behind my sadness. I feel rushed. Rushed to get married. Rushed to visit everywhere. Rushed to recoup my losses.

If time was not ticking, I wouldn't be sad.

It stems from not being satisfied with the present.

First, I ask myself can I control my situation? If so, then I can plan what to do. If not, I accept what is without resistance or planning.

Second, I must take a moment each day to be aware of my body and think of a positive thing to do to another person, make a time each week to meditate, and a time each month to revisit my mental health.

Third, I need to plan what my life will be like as if I had an year to fulfill everything I want. Time is the most scarce resource I have. Life is temporary. I must value it and focus on making every year the best it can be. Many people are afraid of death and their fear makes them ill.

Fourth, I must not simply chase material things or goals. I remember the tale of the fisherman who found a turtle who granted him wishes, but the fisherman wanted more and more. He was never satisfied with what he had and eventually it led to his downfall. I penned the following about desires.

---

Memories flash.

Tears flow.

The world stops between the inhale and the exhale. Taking in this moment.

All aspirations. What for?

My heart is heavy, burdened, rough and blue.

I cradle it. Give it comfort from the pain. I shine yellow and orange light on it.

I tell my heart it is going to be ok. I accept my imperfect tendencies, my impulsiveness, my loss, and how I have let myself be hurt.

I know above all this, I need to appreciate what is most important. My state of mind, my mental and physical health and my family.

Money doesn't mean anything relative to this. I still have some wealth and that's good. But even if I have all the money in the world, it doesn't matter compared to my mind, my health and my family.

It's so easy to forget as life gets in the way. I remember how important it is.

Always lulled into fleshly desires of money and lust throughout my life. But neglecting myself. Harming myself in the process. Damaging my health.

The Great Paradigm Shift

With the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping around the world, there will be huge ramifications for the globe and society more generally. I will discuss what we know and what I expect to occur.

Far too many people are short sighted and just listen to the present day news. As the virus spreads, there will be developments that will forever change how we live our lives.

On a simplistic health level, we know that COVID-19 is 10-20 times deadlier than the flu, that it disproportionately afflicts the elderly and is straining health care systems around the world. Health care capability is already severe impacted. It is expected that optimistically a vaccine may take 6-12 months given the global imperative to develop a cure on an accelerated time frame. Given that we have no cure almost three months after the virus first appeared, it is expected that virus and its broader economic and societal consequences may linger around for longer than many expect. The virus may come in waves where it subsides in the northern hemisphere during summer and then re-appears again on a larger scale in winter, akin to the Spanish flu. There are many unknowns at this stage. These include the long term impact of the virus on individual health post recovery, the time-frame for development of potential cures, and the ability to enforce lockdowns and control the virus.

One of the most overlooked points is the potentially serious implications the virus will have on the third world. Given the lack of capability among leading first world countries, there does not appear to be much hope for the developing world.

In terms of the economic impact, we know that industries at risk will be shuttered. So far we are seeing tourism, discretionary retail, entertainment, hospitality, and raw materials decimated. We know that the world economy was already weak prior to this pandemic with Europe and Japan in particular recording poor economic growth.

To counteract the economic impact, central banks have taken a bazooka to attempt to starve off economic collapse and flood the system with liquidity. The Fed recently announced it cut rates to zero, the lowest rates in history, and launch QE5. While it is a significant development, it is worth noting that the ability for the Fed to take any meaningful action is far more limited than it was prior to the GFC and government budget deficits are significantly greater than they were prior to previous slowdowns. By firing this bazooka early, there is limited conventional opportunity for the Fed to counteract any further weakness.

My expectation is that we are entering a new era of de-leveraging. This may not commence immediately provided appropriate containment of the spread of COVID-19 or if a cure is found and distributed effectively, which if effected may lead to a recovery later this year. However, I expect a prolonged downturn to start in the next few years at the latest. The last time in history we saw such low rates with a limited ability to cut rates further was in the late 1930s. During that period, stock markets and financial asset markets more broadly were stagnant for well over a decade, noting that a world war occurred in the start of this period.

It would be expected that a lengthy drawn out de-leveraging process could occur. Corporate debt is extraordinarily high and earnings will be weak. This could lead to deflation or hyperinflation, and asset sales as companies cannot meet their debt obligations. Job losses will be prevalent. Unemployment will rise. Businesses will collapse. Recession is guaranteed.

Governments will attempt to pump fiscal stimulus. Central banks may resort to buying up government debt and other financial assets in addition to printing money. The US may lose it's status as the global superpower and its dollar may lose its status of being a reserve currency as its debt explodes as it attempts to save itself.

The government cannot keep borrowing indefinitely. At some point the bond market will stop financing our debt spending, at which point we can either re-organise the debt where creditors take a large haircut on their debt with resulting asset sales, implement negative interest rates where creditors see the value of their collateral erode, cut spending significantly, raise taxes significantly, default on the debt, monetise the debt by printing money, or resort to socialism. Historically, governments react to these kinds of situations by printing money. When that happens, we will likely get hyperinflation if too much money is available or depression if too little money is available and the prices of assets used as collateral backing loans will spiral downward.

During the coronavirus crisis, we are witnessing government attempting to control the situation and taking on unprecedented power. However, this will likely result in social unrest and perhaps lead to anarchy in democratic societies as people oppose the rule of the law. As the economic situation worsens, we may see a run on banks and insurers falling over, and long queues for essential services. Masses will ask for government handouts at a time when government budgets around the world are weak. Crime will rise, although this will be offset by a sense of community and negated somewhat by a society that is relatively more responsible and engaged in social media. Governments will default. In one word, there will be 'fear' as people are running scared.

The collapse will bring a closing of the wealth gap in relative terms. Many of the rich will be decimated and while the poor will also be poorer, the gap between the wealthy and the poor will close.

The way we live in the future will change too. As society rebuilds, expect to see increased risk aversion. This will translate to people seeking stability with their jobs and a willingness to get married. Nations will look inward, with a focus on local capability and production, nationalism that may lead to war, and xenophobia. There will also be a rethinking of efficient supply chains, urbanisation, travel, education, healthcare, human impact on the environment and associated consequences as humans encroach ever further into wildlife.

From the Depths

2020 has been a terrible year.

In Australia, we have had the bushfires and now the onset of the coronavirus crisis that may only be just beginning.

On a personal note, my family and I have had to deal with utter devastation.

I saw all my cash, over $550,000, from the sale of two properties wiped out from trading on my expectation that the stock markets would drop. I then maxed out two credit cards to pour into the markets. When the drop came I actually lost money. I was wiped out from my short dated put options and their high implied volatility and the wild swings.

It was unfathomable. I spent my nights crying and kicking random objects in a rage after losing on my trades time and time again. I prayed and found no solace.

In addition, my sister was crying from potentially losing her job. We both have no money and we are stressed and aging due to the stress and psychological impact of our financial losses. We are in the middle of attempting to sell two homes in the middle of the virus crisis, which could negatively impact prices. I got arrested by the police, I crashed my car into two other cars, one of my investment properties got flooded, I lost my social and dating life due to virus fears and being forced to live at home from a lack of money, and my eyes are so sore from looking at the screens trading.

This has been extremely difficult to take.

Yet, I take comfort in my ability to remain reasonably healthy physically during these trials. I eat healthy. I am happy to be with my family during this difficult time. My family has a little money to get by. I am relatively able and I am expected to have many years of my life ahead of me. I take heart in the fact that I would have probably lost all my money at some point trading if I didn't withdraw my winners.

---

During these times, it is worthwhile to realise that life is a progression of cycles. I have suffered from bad times. As always, good times usually follow bad times and bad times follow good times. This is especially so for me during my good times. I was unprepared for the bad times. It pays to be alert when you have had a good run and be perceptive to any warning signs that good times may turn.

Cycles apply to my personal life as well as to human experience and nature in general.

Economically, the world has experienced a bull cycle, with credit growth expanding significantly over the past 50 years. This will be followed by a bear cycle where credit deleverages. This is natural. It will be painful for many people. I was fully expecting a pullback to occur, yet I lost this bet by taking on too much leverage and being a few months too early.

Birth and death are recurring phenomena. So too are pandemics, recession, and war. These are recurring features of history. As a child, you are often unaware of the realities of life. As a young person, you don't see divorce, financial ruin, death, and illness. Encountering such events change your perspective and priorities in life. This current generation of young people has been shielded from reality and have never experienced true crisis. The next decade looks set to be a testing period, reminiscent of decades in the early 20th century.

We enter the world with nothing and we leave with nothing.

In recent years, people complain when they in fact have it well off. Generally speaking, people in first world countries have had no lack of basic necessity. In times past, the lives we live today would be seen as luxurious and it was considered fortunate to survive with simply the clothes we wear.

Year in Review

January 2019

Tears well up in my eyes. I have been holding it in for too long.

Where do I start? How did it all lead to this?

So many areas of my life are disappointing last year. The only thing holding me up is my health and fitness and the love from my family.

I wanted last year to be about finally getting results with girls. I ended up with perhaps 50 dates, maybe 10 kisses, but only 1 conversion. I remember feeling terrible after two dates cancelled me on my last night knowing I had no results after 5 days in a city. I blamed travelling too much and staying in one city only 2 to 7 days. I know it’s not purely this. My game is simply not good enough. I took a program to improve my skillset and realised I am not where others are. I must keep working on my skillset each week, briefing and debriefing.

I feel the sting of being asset rich and cash poor. The conversion of loans to full repayments have crushed my cash flow. I am now cash flow neutral and it is tougher living on lower cash flow. I keep losing with my investments, even after I quit day trading. The majority of the year was fine until I tried to ride the Santa rally but ended up getting slaughtered instead. I am trying to learn as much as I can about investing from others who are good, particularly with Elliott Wave analysis, because I will always have investments and the profits or losses will exceed employment income. I know I should hold onto most of my property investments rather than take on unnecessary risk because property has historically kept pace or exceeded the rate of inflation. I finally completed a property development plagued with issues including difficulties obtaining finance, delays, and cost overruns, but it came several months late as the market is turning south. I am frustrated by the issues with property development and management, and I believe I should take a more passive approach.

I let down my friends by being inconsiderate. I think of myself too much, letting down friends and family at times.

I am disillusioned with God. I admit I don’t know whether there is God. I simply know there is the universe.

I had external factors putting me down, such as the police interrogating me, my family wanting me to settle down.

I lost belief. My mood was not great. I was travelling too much. I visited close to 100 cities. While some of the travel was enjoyable, I don’t really feel excitement or happy visiting another country or place.

I lost sight of happiness. By neglecting happiness, my life overall is not as happy as it was.

While I focus on the negative aspects, the year was slightly below average but not terrible. I am satisfied with how much I have travelled and how I have kept myself despite continually being on the road. I have had years which were worse.

All this is recoverable. I still have my health. I am still intelligent. I can restore my belief. I rewrote my vision board this year and listed my affirmations. I have things I am working on. I am revisiting the words I penned. I look forward to a happier and more successful 2019.

If you had all the money and all time in the world what would you do? Respect parent’s opinions but I choose my own purpose.

--

December 2019

As we approach the end of 2019, I reflect on my musings at the start of the year.

2019 has been a memorable year. I wouldn’t say a good year or a bad year.

Two major things transpired.

I had more sex than I had in my entire life previously. I dated 300 girls, closed 35. Dating dominated my time. It was time consuming and addictive. Sex doesn’t make me happy. It is kind of pointless. Honestly, I am satisfied I was able to achieve this having come from a conservative upbringing where I was bound by my social anxiety and religion in particular where I never intended to have sex before marriage until at 24 when I had a change of mind. I was sexually frustrated resorting to pornography. I had a great neediness and bitterness. Despite the satisfaction from achieving this, I realise sex is not everything. There is the craving for sex during a dry spell, a release afterwards, but no real satisfaction. There was only one girl out of the lot that I probably saw any future with. I was just a fuckboy and while it was an experience, I don’t find it fulfilling. In fact, I don’t have many happy days this year. Even though I have had tasted what success looks like, I still have much to learn. I know I am not at the level other people are at with their game and I must keep briefing, debriefing and learning.

The second thing, was the immense trading losses I incurred. I lost half a million dollars. It wasn’t going well at the start of the year when I took a bought a 3x inverse S&P 500 ETF and was down 50%. And it completely exploded after I sold a property and put the proceeds into the shorting the market. I was blindly following two people from Elliott Wave analysis who I thought had the answers instead of following my own indicators. It completely destroyed my portfolio. At the end of the year my portfolio is down 99%. I would have actually been up quite substantially if I had followed my own indicators instead. I lament the poor decisions. I do pray I can take some of my learnings and improve for the future, although the future is still a mystery. For now, making good investment decisions is the major priority for me after the huge losses I incurred.

I was hit hard mentally from the trading losses. Somehow, I am still ok. Touch wood, I don’t have depression. While my physical condition has deteriorated from limited exercise it is still reasonable and I have been eating right.

The other aspect of the year is travel. I have been able to travel somewhat. While I travelled less than in 2018, it was certainly more than 99% of people. I visited a few new countries and many cities. I am motivated to continue to strive for 100 countries in the next year after seeing a few people complete or near their goal of visiting every country in the world.

I wasn’t able to achieve what I set out in my vision board. I will rework it to focus on my priorities for the year – namely investment success (surviving the year, restoring my portfolio). I plan to travel to 100 countries and improve my texting ability.